NFL Offseason Power Rankings: No. 5 Dallas Cowboys Face Undue Scrutiny

A single statement from Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has reshaped perceptions of the team’s offseason and set lofty expectations for the upcoming season.

In January, shortly after the Cowboys’ playoff exit, Jones declared that his team would be “all in” during the offseason. He repeated this assertion multiple times. However, the anticipated aggressive spending spree did not materialize. Jones, known for his love of the spotlight and sometimes peculiar comments, was never likely to overspend, especially with crucial contracts for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons looming.

Jones’ comments set an unrealistic expectation, fueling the narrative for skeptics. Despite their strong recent performances, the Cowboys’ offseason inactivity became a focal point for criticism, overshadowing a solid three-year record of 36-15. The team’s consistent playoff frustrations, rather than its regular season successes, dominate discussions, creating a perception crisis.

The abrupt end to the Cowboys’ season was indeed disheartening, with a 48-32 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Trailing 27-0 in the second quarter, discussions about firing head coach Mike McCarthy began before halftime. Despite this, McCarthy stayed, but confidence in his ability to lead a Super Bowl run remains low. Prescott’s regular season performance (73-41) contrasts sharply with his playoff record (2-5), perpetuating the narrative of the Cowboys as a great regular-season team that falters in the playoffs.

However, hope persists. Prescott was in the MVP conversation until the season’s end, Lamb led the NFL with 135 receptions and 1,749 yards, and despite a subpar running back situation, Dallas remains a pass-first team. The defense, stellar in recent seasons, should remain strong even with Dan Quinn’s departure to the Washington Commanders. Achieving three consecutive 12-win seasons is no fluke.

The offseason didn’t meet fans’ heightened expectations, but the core of a 12-win roster remains intact. The Cowboys are poised for another strong regular season, though postseason performance will be the true measure.

Offseason Grade

Even without the “all in” comments from Jerry Jones, the Cowboys’ offseason was underwhelming. Key losses included Dorance Armstrong, Tyler Biadasz, Tony Pollard, and Tyron Smith. While not all are blue-chip players, their absence is significant, and replacements were minimal. Ezekiel Elliott’s return doesn’t address the running back issues, and an uninspiring draft, headlined by developmental player Tyler Guyton and center Cooper Beebe, leaves the roster arguably weaker.

Grade: D

Quarterback Report

Dak Prescott often faces harsh criticism, likened to Kirk Cousins in terms of divisive public opinion. However, Prescott’s 2023 stats—4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and top Pro Football Focus and EPA/play rankings—tell a different story. He was an MVP contender and ESPN Analytics’ most valuable player.

Prescott’s contract situation will dominate headlines this season. Without an extension, he becomes a free agent in 2025, potentially setting new salary records. Despite the attention, Prescott has proven himself superior to many peers holding record contracts.

BetMGM Odds Breakdown

The Cowboys’ win total opened at 10.5 but has dipped closer to 9.5 as the offseason progressed. Over 9.5 wins carries -165 odds, while under 10.5 is -175. Despite three straight 12-5 seasons, the betting public is skeptical about an 11-win season. Super Bowl odds place Dallas at +1800, behind teams like the Packers and Texans, reflecting the offseason negativity following Jones’ “all in” comment.

Yahoo’s Fantasy Take

Jake Ferguson’s breakout year, leading tight ends in red-zone targets and finishing as TE8, suggests room for improvement despite modest touchdowns. Ferguson’s target share is secure, making him a solid fantasy bet with potential to exceed his TE9 ADP in Yahoo drafts.

Stat to Remember

Despite Mike McCarthy’s talk of a run-first philosophy, the Cowboys were pass-heavy, ranking fourth in pass rate over expectation and early-down pass rate. With Tony Pollard gone and Ezekiel Elliott returning past his prime, the Cowboys’ weak running back depth might push them to lead the NFL in pass rate.

Burning Question

Can Dallas replace Dan Quinn? Quinn’s tenure saw the Cowboys’ defense excel, finishing top-five in DVOA and leading in takeaways. Mike Zimmer, the new defensive coordinator, aims to maintain and enhance the defense’s strengths. With talents like Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland, a seamless transition could keep Dallas among the league’s defensive elite.

Best-Case Scenario

The Cowboys have the potential to be a top team in both offense and defense. With Dak Prescott playing at an MVP level and Micah Parsons a Defensive Player of the Year contender, Dallas could win the NFC East and make a deep playoff run. Despite widespread doubt, the foundation for a championship remains.

Nightmare Scenario

Contract uncertainties for Prescott, Lamb, and Parsons could be a distraction. Combined with concerns about the running back situation, receiver depth, offensive line, and defense without Quinn, the Cowboys might miss the playoffs. This would raise questions about the futures of Mike McCarthy, Prescott, and others.

Crystal Ball

The Cowboys are still a strong team despite offseason noise. Prescott will remain among the NFL’s best quarterbacks, likely securing a contract extension. Dallas will win the NFC East but may face early playoff elimination, perpetuating the annual cycle of underappreciation and offseason skepticism.